The gravity strategy of WP

I was reading this commentary, when I thought of the WP’s strategy to focus on constituencies around Hougang. I believe this strategy was implemented since 2001. Hence during the 2006 general elections, they contested these areas:

GE 2006 electoral map. Source: Wikipedia

As you can see, Hougang is smacked in the middle of all the wards which they contested. This is interesting! So I’ve a hypothesis: does the distance from Hougang affect electoral results of the WP?

So I’ve categorized the wards which WP contested:

0: Hougang

1: Aljunied GRC

2: East Coast GRC, AMK GRC

3: Joo Chiat, Nee Soon Central and Nee Soon East SMCs

These values will form the x-axis in the graph I’ll show later. The larger the number, the farther they are from Hougang.

WP graph. Source: Elections Department

You might need to click on the graph for a larger view. Anyway, the y-axis represents the elections’ results. So I plotted the graph, and with these points, I drew a best-fit line. The gradient is negative, which suggests an inverse relationship between election results and distance from Hougang. Hence the WP’s strategy is somewhat working. Aljunied GRC, with envelops Hougang, ranks second in electoral performance. East Coast GRC, which is Aljunied’s neighbour, ranked third. AMK, though in the same category as East Coast GRC, is second from the bottom, and the only odd one out. The worst performers are the SMCs, Joo Chiat, NSC and NSE, which are in category 3, the farthest from Hougang.

For the upcoming elections, it seems WP will contest the new wards of Seng Kang West SMC, Punggol East SMC, Nee Soon GRC and Moulmein-Kallang GRC. Let’s give each ward a value.

1: Punggol East

2: Seng Kang West

3: Nee Soon GRC

4: Moulmein-Kallang GRC

It’s necessary to give Moulmein-Kallang GRC a value of ‘4’, because the wards which WP intends to contest do not border the GRC at all. In contrast, in 2006, the places where WP contested were contiguous to one another. As WP is not contesting AMK, Nee Soon GRC seems to be ‘chopped off’ from the WP’s intended battlegrounds. From the linear graph, it seems logical to argue WP might be victorious in Punggol East, polling above 40 percent in Seng Kang West, about 30-odd percent in Nee Soon GRC, and score miserably in Moulmein-Kallang GRC.

Er-hem. Obviously my predictions are highly inaccurate. But this is all hypothetical. The graph does not take into account GRC or SMC, the voters, the candidates etc. I’ll revisit this blog after the elections to see if my predictions match the results (:


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