It’s hard to predict the outcome of this particular general elections. The most pessimistic scenario is one where PAP wins all the seats i.e. 87 vs. 0. The most realistic scenarios are either 81 vs.6 or 85 vs. 2, with the Workers Party securing Aljunied and Hougang in the former (and possibly SPP taking Potong Pasir), and SPP and WP securing two in the latter.
What happens if the outcome is 85 vs. 2 i.e. Hougang and Potong Pasir stay opposition, Aljunied stays PAP, albeit by narrow margin? I think voters in Aljunied must look at past elections before voting:
- 1988: Eunos GRC (3-member), PAP vs. WP, 50.89 vs. 49.11
- 1991: Eunos GRC (4-member), PAP vs. WP, 52.39 vs. 47.62
- 1997: Gone!
I’m not sure if the expansion of Eunos GRC in 1991 contributed to the PAP’s slight increase in its margin of victory. Or if there was any gerrymandering in 1991. Look at another example:
- 1997: Cheng San GRC (5-member), PAP vs. WP, 54.82 vs. 45.18
- 2001: Gone!
If the PAP wins Aljunied with a narrow margin on 7 May, in the next elections, there will be a huge possibility the GRC will be carved out. It’ll disappear on the electoral map.
What if the outcome is 81 vs. 6 (or 80 vs. 7) i.e. Hougang, Potong Pasir and Aljunied go to the opposition?
George Yeo, Lim Hwee Hua and Zainal Abidin are presently ministers. They will lose their seats and portfolios, but the PAP government doesn’t crash. And its shortage of talent problem is exaggerated.
Just take a look at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Currently, George Yeo is the minister while Zainal Abidin is the Senior Minister of State. The second minister is Raymond Lim, who is also the transport minister. If George Yeo were booted out, the PM still has a few candidates to fill his portfolio:
- Senior Minister Goh himself. He seems to be traveling overseas frequently anyway, so might as well appoint him as Foreign Affairs minister. Still, this is an unlikely decision, because of his age, and the PAP keeps harping about its 4th generation leadership.
- Raymond Lim to become Foreign Affairs minister, and someone else to take his transport portfolio. From the list I complied, MOE and MTI each has an extra minister of state – S Iswaran is holding double portfolios, so he could be promoted to be transport minister. Alternatively, a minister can hold dual portfolios.
- What about minister of state in the Foreign Affairs ministry? It’s likely a minister of state among the new candidates would be appointed anyway, but he or she would have to do without a mentor.
And the Speaker of Parliament?
- Why not Indranee Rajah, the Deputy Speaker?
- No other candidates?
The PAP is simply scaring the electorate. Losing George Yeo is very bad, but it’s their fault anyway. But losing him does not mean the end of the world, since the PAP is likely to have more than two-thirds majority. And from among its MPs, I’m sure most of them are sufficiently capable to become a minister, and not just a mere backbencher.
So, voters in Aljunied should weigh the consequences, as advised by MM Lee. Their future voting choices, or the loss of replaceable ministers?
Politics 
If WP wins, you get 5 MPs who has no concrete plans for the entire GRC. You will be lucky if the value of your property in Aljunied does not begin to drop, let alone keep up with the rest of Singapore. And we are not talking about only 5 years; if Aljunied goes to WP this time, it may be difficult for PAP to win it back in subsequent elections (think Hougang and Potong Pasir).
If PAP wins, you get 2 ministers, the next parliament speaker and a potential offfice-holder. Two NCMP seats will go to Sylvia Lim and Chen SM and we will have 5 years to assess how the latter performs in parliament. Low TK has made no significant contributions or ideas to parliamentary debates in the last 20 years and I don’t see why he should be given another 5.
You will be lucky if the value of your property in Aljunied does not begin to drop, let alone keep up with the rest of Singapore.
Can you show how the election of 5 WP MPs = property price in Aljunied stagnates or drops? The PAP likes to talk about track record, perhaps you can take a look at Hougang run by WP’s Low. Is it different from other PAP wards? No. Hence you’re parroting MM Lee’s exaggeration.
Two NCMP seats will go to Sylvia Lim and Chen SM and we will have 5 years to assess how the latter performs in parliament.
NCMP seats are not equal to elected MPs, in terms of voting rights and representation. I hope you understand that. Furthermore, if you think opposition candidates require tutelage as NCMPs, why not new PAP candidates, who have no previous parliamentary experience too? Why vote these candidates as elected MPs right away?
Both Chen and Aloysius are too partisan. 50 years’ ago citizens are more concern about the stomach then politic. Today they are more educated and informed. If only the government is more transparent and less of the we know best attitude, there would be less clamoured for check and balances.
Hello,
We will be voting for the NSP to boot out GCT and his team.
No SM is too big to fail. Ask yourself, what was his contribution
to you as SM during the past few years? Don’t forget, TPL would get in
if you vote for GCT. Don’t insult yourself.
We have many “Chen” around and Singapore has no hope really. This “Chen” is really political immature. This is precisely the problem of Singapore. Until this stage, we still have such “Chen” to block the change needed for the country. Please go and educate yourself about democracy and politics and not just thinking about your property. Real selfish and narrow-minded Singaporean. Please look at the big picture.
He runs for the PAP for sure…….PAP has set out online bloggers to counteract against any pro-opposition……..
For the pay he is getting, I’ll appoint Kuan Yew as the foreign minister.